Vol: 3, Issue: 1 2013

Page: 060-074

Demand Projection of Chemical Fertilizer's Consumption in India: Determinants and Outlook for 2020

Dr Jasbir Singh

Chemical fertilizers are key element of modern technology and have played an important role in agricultural production growth in India. However, the demand-supply gap of fertilizer in India has increased in recent times due to dependency on imports. Indian imports, which were about 2 million tons in early part of 2000, has increased to 10.2 million tones consumption of fertilizers in 2008-09. In view of importance of fertilizers in agriculture growth and the possibility of an emerging demand-supply gap, there is a need to forecast future demand. The paper begins with an overview of fertilizer consumption trends and then identifies important determinants of fertilizer demand and develops projects demand scenarios for fertilizers in India in 2020-21. India is the second largest consumer of fertilizers in the world after China, consuming about 26.5 million tones. However, average intensity of fertilizer use in India remains much lower than mostly countries in the world but is highly skewed, with wide inter-regional, inter-state, and inter-district variations. In present study we want to find that how we can fulfill increasing gap between fertilizer consumption demand and supply. We would like to analysis that what is the estimated growth rate of fertilizer consumption in 1915-16 to 2020-21. The paper suggests that in order to ensure self-sufficiency in agricultural production in the country, availability of fertilizers at affordable prices should be prioritized over higher output prices. By 2020, fertilizer demand in the country is projected to increase to about 41.6 million tones and is expected to grow at a faster rate in eastern and southern region compared with north and west.